Projected US total deaths.
Forums › General Discussion › Projected US total deaths.-
4/3/2020
7392
4/4/2020
8279
4/5/2020
9273
4/6/2020
10385
4/7/2020
11631
4/8/2020
13027
4/9/2020
14590
4/10/2020
16341
4/11/2020
18302
4/12/2020
20499
4/13/2020
22958
4/14/2020
25713
4/15/2020
28799
4/16/2020
32255
4/17/2020
36126
4/18/2020
40461
4/19/2020
45316
4/20/2020
50754
4/21/2020
56844
4/22/2020
63666
4/23/2020
71305
4/24/2020
79862
4/25/2020
89445
4/26/2020
100179
4/27/2020
112200
4/28/2020
125664
4/29/2020
140744
4/30/2020
157634
5/1/2020
176550
5/2/2020
197735
5/3/2020
221464
5/4/2020
248039
5/5/2020
277804
5/6/2020
311141
5/7/2020
348477
5/8/2020
390295
5/9/2020
437130
5/10/2020
489586
5/11/2020
548336
5/12/2020
614136
5/13/2020
687833
5/14/2020
770373
5/15/2020
862817
5/16/2020
966356
5/17/2020
1082318
5/18/2020
1212196
5/19/2020
1357660
5/20/2020
1520579
5/21/2020
1703049
5/22/2020
1907414
5/23/2020
2136304
5/24/2020
2392661
5/25/2020
2679780
5/26/2020
3001354
5/27/2020
3361516
5/28/2020
3764898
5/29/2020
4216686
5/30/2020
4722688
5/31/2020
5289411
6/1/2020
5924140 -
Wow, I’ve never seen anything like this on TW. It’s always interesting to see something new. Nice job with planning on donating the winnings to charity.
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Now we’re just being ridiculous.
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Need some help:
North America:
https://www.nafcclinics.org/Europe: ?
Australia: ?
Asia: ?
Africa: ?
South America: ?
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https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
I’d probably guess 300,000 in the US by then. The economy will be crushed. However, yesterday I saw the flaw in the system... Why the stay home order is failing... People are still going to supermarkets, no PPE, bumping in to each other, walking through clouds of virus.Now we’re just being ridiculous.
Then they reduce the hours the store is open! Now it’s more crowded!
I think the best way to beat the thing is a REAL 2 week lockdown. We are dragging this thing out too much. Close the borders, stay at home, period. Then the thing will die and we can get back to work.
“Ok, everyone... Let’s mostly shut everything down indefinitely while this thing continues to exponentially grow.”
NOW we are just being ridiculous!
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∞🪓Persephone🌲∞ wrote:
😎😎😎😎😎😎😎https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org
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World population Control
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So 4/3 ended up being 7,404.
So far today (4/4) we’re at 8,344. -
Deleted “the bet” to respect those involved- it was perceived by some as being disrespectful to those who have or will lose their lives. I understand 1000% as I am an essential worker leading a team of over 60 essential workers. We are knee deep in the battle & on the front lines with Healthcare Delivery and multiple local government agencies. The “competition” was aimed at a more favorable result of the battle than the Mathematical prediction. Donations have already occurred and will continue. 👍
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Actual Totals So Far:
4/3: 7,404
4/4: 8,451
4/5: 9,616
4/6: 10,871 (as of 7:52 pm central)Currently they’re predicting the peak in daily deaths will occur on April 16.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
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Those are the most conservative numbers. Those projections assume full social distancing through May, which is already not happening.
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Tweek wrote:
Just to be clear. You believe 6 million Americans will die of coronavirus?Those are the most conservative numbers. Those projections assume full social distancing through May, which is already not happening.
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.amp.html
🤷🏼♀️
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Idk about the numbers, but I do believe we have the ability to make it better or worse.
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Mystery wrote:
If we’re undercounting deaths from corona why is overall death rate dropping in every major city?https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.amp.html
🤷🏼♀️
Common Pneumonia deaths have plummeted to record lows. Heart attacks and strokes are way down too. You know why? Because when they die of a heart attack the hospital tests them for corona after they die. If they had corona it goes on the death certificate.
If anything they’re overcounting. Either way I’d spot Daisy 5 million if it was ethical to bet on this. Which as Persephone said, is probably a little dark.
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Less car accidents when less people are on the road 🤷🏽♂️
Coroner does autopsies to determine exact cause of death. That won’t happen during a pandemic as the coroner wouldn’t be able to do 300x the work with 1/3 the staff. It is assumed that if the deceased tested positive for COVID circumstances of death include organ failure or COVID related illness - Public Health will document and report is COVID caused. They will not be performing autopsies on all of the deceased.
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And they aren’t testing corpses for covid...mostly due to the lack of test kits still. I would guess a lot of people that would go in before for chest pains are likely toughing it out and staying away from hospitals. Plus social separation and not going to work probably reduces vectors for pneumonia and even heart attacks (flu causes a fair amount of heart attacks and respiratory issues like pneumonia.) guessing this is helping reducing the flu a bit also with kids out of school. As for stress induced illness...maybe an extended vacation from bad bosses is helping some people. In any case, it is really too early to read much from a few scattered reports from doctors that are probably a bit shell shocked anyway at the moment.
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We exceeded your prediction for 4/6. We are at 10,871 deaths. 😝
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★DΞICIDΞ★ wrote:
Yea it’s not that I disagree with how Daisy compiled her up numbers. I just believe it stops and goes back down like Italy and Spain have done. To think we’re going to keep going on this exponential growth until June is just silly.We exceeded your prediction for 4/6. We are at 10,871 deaths. 😝
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
★DΞICIDΞ★ wrote:
Yea it’s not that I disagree with how Daisy compiled her up numbers. I just believe it stops and goes back down like Italy and Spain have done. To think we’re going to keep going on this exponential growth until June is just silly.We exceeded your prediction for 4/6. We are at 10,871 deaths. 😝
Yes - if people do what they are supposed to & use extreme caution- assume all are infected and protect yourself
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
It’s not about the total deaths, it’s about the number of those caused by Covid. You need to read the whole article. There’s too much to paste.Mystery wrote:
If we’re undercounting deaths from corona why is overall death rate dropping in every major city?https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.amp.html
🤷🏼♀️
Common Pneumonia deaths have plummeted to record lows. Heart attacks and strokes are way down too. You know why? Because when they die of a heart attack the hospital tests them for corona after they die. If they had corona it goes on the death certificate.
If anything they’re overcounting. Either way I’d spot Daisy 5 million if it was ethical to bet on this. Which as Persephone said, is probably a little dark.
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YOU wrote:
The link above that the gov is now supposedly using projectsActual Totals So Far:
4/3: 7,404
4/4: 8,451
4/5: 9,616
4/6: 10,871 (as of 7:52 pm central)Currently they’re predicting the peak in daily deaths will occur on April 16.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
81,766 COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020. -
“Will we need social distancing until there is a vaccine?
Our model suggests that, with social distancing, the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some of the social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine.”
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“ An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee.”
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
No. I was replying to mystery. I should have quoted her but I'm not 100% at the moment.Tweek wrote:
Just to be clear. You believe 6 million Americans will die of coronavirus?Those are the most conservative numbers. Those projections assume full social distancing through May, which is already not happening.
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Why stop that calculation on June 1st? I think we can all agree that this particular strain of virus will still be hanging around in July. Many states are said to ‘peak’ into late June or early July
- Now extrapolate out to July 7th for fun. 😬. You can stop on that day, because the exponential 12% increase you have above equals the US population. So you are predicting full extinction... or at least everyone in the United States.
On July 8th you guys can take a few cans of Lysol and head on a road trip south to WAshington DC and plant this flag 🇨🇦 on the capital. It’s all yours after you sanitize everything😜 -
You guys see the antibody treatment breakthrough that the team in I think California had recently? These were I think the guys that took the work that had been proposed as a remedy for SARS back in 2004 but was dropped when SARS was basically wiped out of existence by an aggressive quarantine and tracking process. Sounds like they test developed 5 different antibodies in hopes one would work and then were floored when all 5 of the antibodies worked. Just caught the tail end of the discussion on this so hopefully more info on it tomorrow
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χɑɱɓɭɛɾ🌴CͣAͩPͩ wrote:
This virus is actually SARS-Coronavirus 2, and COVID-19 is the disease you get from it, so that seems promising.You guys see the antibody treatment breakthrough that the team in I think California had recently? These were I think the guys that took the work that had been proposed as a remedy for SARS back in 2004 but was dropped when SARS was basically wiped out of existence by an aggressive quarantine and tracking process. Sounds like they test developed 5 different antibodies in hopes one would work and then were floored when all 5 of the antibodies worked. Just caught the tail end of the discussion on this so hopefully more info on it tomorrow
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@Brown Note: I think you are right about the 2 week "strict" lockdown. The president believes it is unconstitutional to order it. But I think that if he strongly encouraged the states leaders, maybe they would each order it. But it's hard to enforce.
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
★DΞICIDΞ★ wrote:
Yea it’s not that I disagree with how Daisy compiled her up numbers. I just believe it stops and goes back down like Italy and Spain have done. To think we’re going to keep going on this exponential growth until June is just silly.We exceeded your prediction for 4/6. We are at 10,871 deaths. 😝
... the day over day infection rate is dropping so hopefully my very simple Excel numbers will start being wrong in about 2 weeks.
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