Corona Virus
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Are you talking about ventilators? Can you list your source that says there is a surplus?Doctors in UK grossly lowering their mortality projections. In the US we have a surplus of beds and respirators at the moment. Stopping everything and people losing their jobs is going to end up hurting WAY more people than the disease will.
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
That’s nice for the UK, but just the state of New York has more than 3 times the number of cases as the entire UK. Mortality projections have been changing since the beginning and will continue to change until the end.Doctors in UK grossly lowering their mortality projections. In the US we have a surplus of beds and respirators at the moment. Stopping everything and people losing their jobs is going to end up hurting WAY more people than the disease will.
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It was the 5pm White House press conference.
We now have more coronavirus cases than Italy & their death rate is 8x ours. All those people who shared fear porn graphs about how we were going to be Italy were all wrong.
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“A variety of factors affects the mortality rate: geography, the quality of health care, age of the population, life style and underlying conditions. In China, the mortality rate for CV-19 has been 4%. In Italy, it's about 10%. In Iran, it's about 7.6%. In Germany, it's less than 1% and in the U.S., where the outbreak is just getting underway, it's about 1.5%.
The mortality rate generally drops as testing rises and more patients are identified. But epidemiologists caution that the reverse can be true as U.S. hospitals get inundated and run out of necessary equipment, like ventilators, to treat patients who might have otherwise been saved. They also say it takes weeks for the virus to infiltrate a community and several more before people are sick enough to die. So it will be several months before the true mortality rate can be quantified in the U.S. or elsewhere...
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The 'R naught'
Scientists also assess the so-called R naught of the disease, a mathematical equation that shows how many people will get sick from each infected person. Just like the mortality rate, the R naught will fluctuate over time as scientists gather more data, and it can vary depending on where someone lives. If the R naught is higher than 1, it will spread and it will be contagious.Estimates of the R naught for COVID-19 have ranged from 1.4 to about 5. The WHO has estimated the R naught of COVID-19 to be around 1.95 and other estimates from researchers following the outbreak put it around 2.2, meaning about two people will catch the virus from every person who already has it.
The R naught can also be heavily reduced, depending on what a nation does to contain the virus, which is why state and local officials are scrambling across the U.S. to close businesses and keep people indoors...
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China last week reported its first day with zero new cases after placing much of the nation under lockdown for nearly two months. The R naught can also dramatically increase if a country does nothing.
Many have compared the COVID-19 outbreak to influenza, also known as the common flu, another respiratory illness that has symptoms similar to CV-19.
So far, COVID-19 is proving to be more infectious with an R naught of around 2 than the seasonal flu, which has an R naught of 1.3 and infects up to 49 million Americans each year. Based on the WHO's most recent mortality rate of 3.4%, the COVID-19 outbreak is shaping up to be at least 34 times deadlier than the flu, which has a mortality rate of about 0.1% and kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year across the globe. If the current mortality for CV-19 rate holds at 4.5%, it would make this coronavirus 45 times deadlier than the flu. -
The 1918 flu was one of the most horrific pandemics of the 20th century, hitting those ages 20 to 40 especially hard, according to WHO. COVID-19's R naught of 2 is slightly more infectious than the 1918 flu. The 1918 flu had a mortality rate of 2.5% and killed more people — 30 million to 50 million — than the 20 million who died in World War I. If the 4.5% mortality rate of COVID-19 drops, it won't be as bad as the 1918 flu. If it continues on its current trajectory, it will be almost twice as deadly.”
The rest of the article has more interesting comparisons. I’m not going to post the whole thing, so here is the link:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/26/coronavirus-may-be-deadlier-than-1918-flu-heres-how-it-stacks-up-to-other-pandemics.html
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If there’s a surplus of vents, then how do you explain NY? Why aren’t they being sent there?
“ELMHURST, Queens (WABC) -- Long lines of people formed Thursday morning outside Elmhurst Hospital in Queens where in just 24 hours, officials say 13 patients died of coronavirus. The hospital is now "at the center of this crisis."
Dr. Colleen Smith, an emergency care physician at the hospital, described the area where the COVID-19 patients are being treated as "a parking lot of stretchers." As one emergency care physician told ABC News plainly, "this is ground zero."
At one point, the hospital even came close to running out of oxygen, according to one emergency care physician. When asked by ABC News what they needed most, he said, "ventilators, critical care staff, and space" - in that order...
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"We're filling up our ICUs. We have several floors now that are devoted only to COVID positive patients. So we're finding ourselves getting close to being overwhelmed by patients. Some of these are very sick patients."
According to Smith, the hospital's entire Intensive Care Unit is now fully dedicated to treating COVID-19 patients, along with the cardiac, surgical and medical units all transitioned into the ICU as well.
The mayor tweeted on Thursday that the hospital received 40 more ventilators and added more staff to increase capacity. He pleaded for more federal help as other city hospitals are being overwhelmed with patients.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abc7ny.com/amp/6050772
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Regarding Italy:
In Italy, 85.6 percent of those who have died were over 70, according to the National Institute of Health's (ISS) latest report.
With 23 percent of Italians over 65 years old, the Mediterannean country has the second-oldest population in the world after Japan - and observers believe age distribution could also have played a role in raising the fatality rate.Another possible factor is Italy's healthcare system itself, which provides universal coverage and is largely free of charge.
"We have many elderly people with numerous illnesses who were able to live longer thanks to extensive care, but these people were more fragile than others," Galli said, adding that many patients at Sacco Hospital - one of Italy's largest medical centres - who died due to coronavirus were already suffering from other serious diseases.
According to the ISS's latest report tracing the profile of COVID-19 victims, 48 percent of the deceased had an average of three pre-existing illnesses.
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Citing the epidemic curve of other countries, Lopalco suggested that the difference between them and Italy is timing: they are simply at an earlier stage.
"After China, Italy is the first country where the epidemic erupted; hence, we are dealing with the effects of an advanced-stage epidemic."There’s even more info here:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2020/03/italy-coronavirus-fatality-rate-high-200323114405536.html
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Panicers gonna panic 🤷🏻♂️
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Who is panicking?Panicers gonna panic 🤷🏻♂️
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Mystery wrote:
The white people..😲℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Who is panicking?Panicers gonna panic 🤷🏻♂️
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Mystery wrote:
Seems like a lot of people. Have you seen the grocery stores?℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Who is panicking?Panicers gonna panic 🤷🏻♂️
Seriously though there’s doctors saying everything’s fine and there’s doctors saying 20 million people are going to die. In my experience people post the ones they agree with. I’m not going to trade statistics back and forth because it doesn’t matter. It won’t change anyone’s belief.
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I’m a white person and I’m not panicking.
I’ve heard about the grocery stores but I haven’t seen them.
Well clearly everything isn’t fine. I think (and certainly hope) 20 million is too high of an estimate. I think it will end up being worse than the annual flu but not as bad as 1918. I’m hoping our increased medical knowledge and technology combined with isolation will stop it from reaching 1918 proportions.
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I’m Canadian. Where I live the stores are OK, you can pick up the basics without a problem.
I know a few health care professionals. They are stoically being trained for the ‘tsunami’ of cases that are coming our way. People are going to die that you didn’t expect to pass away. Sorry to be a black cloud, but I think North America is 2 weeks behind our thinking when we should be 2 weeks ahead.
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Mystery wrote:
Worked retail supervision for about 6 years still have friends that work it. Been shopping there personally as well. It's bad but starting to get better. Stores are reducing hours to give them more time to stock and work freight. Certain retailers are limiting to quantity of an item you can buy at one time. Like one of my friends said, it will get bad once you see a spike in news coverage and people panick for supplies again.I’m a white person and I’m not panicking.
I’ve heard about the grocery stores but I haven’t seen them.
Well clearly everything isn’t fine. I think (and certainly hope) 20 million is too high of an estimate. I think it will end up being worse than the annual flu but not as bad as 1918. I’m hoping our increased medical knowledge and technology combined with isolation will stop it from reaching 1918 proportions.
It's a same as any other large emergency.. They buy the same shit before hurricanes..
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
There is very little difference between 20 million dead and “everything’s fine” from a top-down perspective. Millions of people dying every year happens every year. What’s the difference between 5 million and 20 million when we have 7 billion.Mystery wrote:
Seems like a lot of people. Have you seen the grocery stores?℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Who is panicking?Panicers gonna panic 🤷🏻♂️
Seriously though there’s doctors saying everything’s fine and there’s doctors saying 20 million people are going to die. In my experience people post the ones they agree with. I’m not going to trade statistics back and forth because it doesn’t matter. It won’t change anyone’s belief.
But that perspective is kind of shitty when a family member dies that wouldn’t otherwise have because you want to go out and shop for throw rugs.
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Don’t panic. But if you are totally unprepared to stay home for a couple of months, like 99% of us, immediately go out and buy 2 months of provisions so you can be safer. As a result, the shelves are empty, and you are ridiculed for being a panic-fueled hoarder.
I don’t think the problem is hoarding. The problem is not enough people “hoarding” (preparing) for disasters like this as part of daily life.
It’s a shame that the Boy Scouts went under. They had a great motto.
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Food supply will be a big problem in the next few months . Strawberries, onions and early season fruits and vegetables are starting to rot in the fields in Spain and Italy. Canada’s requires 50000 tempary legal workers to help our country. They normally come to Canada very soon to start growing our seedling in our greenhouses. USA bring in houndreds of thousands more .... our food supply will be affected.
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clint crawford wrote:
Exactly why we need to get back to work and get this shutdown bullshit over with.Food supply will be a big problem in the next few months . Strawberries, onions and early season fruits and vegetables are starting to rot in the fields in Spain and Italy. Canada’s requires 50000 tempary legal workers to help our country. They normally come to Canada very soon to start growing our seedling in our greenhouses. USA bring in houndreds of thousands more .... our food supply will be affected.
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🧛🏻♂️ ⚰️ Screw it. I’m going outside.
🧛🏻♂️☀️ Huh. Interesting.
🔥☀️ Dang it.
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I had heard last year that Italy led the world in the anti-vaccine movement. In fact I saw this in an article late last year:
“ Italy’s Five Star Movement — a “non-party” party, founded by a comedian and formed on the Internet — spent a long time nodding and winking to anti-vaxxers . Unsurprisingly, a movement founded on hatred of “the establishment” was also suspicious of the medical establishment .”
Later this movement became part of the government and the health minister was part of that party. Guessing when you have a party like that pushing conspiracy theories and misinformation in the face of a rising pandemic with most of the parties followers older people you have a recipe for disaster. Add in the higher number of those people catching the flu and overloading the health system and even masking the corona virus a bit as people just assumed they had the flu...well, I could see how things messed up a bit over there.
For now, everyone be safe and wait this out as best you can.
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Guessing the biggest dangers to the US are going to be 1) misinformation, 2) false hope, and 3) idiots.
Misinformation unfortunately spews across the internet and tv into your home so fast and in such great quantity these days that it takes more time than most people have to bother fact checking the information before they pass it on in turn...sometimes with fatal consequences as we saw last week when a family tried to self medicate based on a comment trump made.
False hope...well, guessing when NYC death rates finally peak there will be a sudden push to put the country back to work. Forgetting the rolling nature of this beast.
Idiots? Basically just considering the over reactors (massive hoarders, scammers taking advantage of the crisis, people that will resist vaccine when one comes available, etc). Only recommendation: pay attention to the true scientists, be wary of politicians that ignore science or are just ignorant in general.
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
How about another update there, jerky. How’s that “psh, Bullshit” theory coming along?Corona update: 34 dead in the United States
Let’s not forget swing flu (h1n1) killed 12,000 and nothing was canceled and no one seemed to care.
12,000 dead, yet only .02% mortality with h1n1. Let’s infect the same number of people that had h1n1 with Covid19 and see if it’s more or less deadly.
We are now looking at official guesstimates of 250,000 dead in the US on the conservative end as of today. That’s after a few weeks of “over-reaction”.
Imagine what it would be like right now if we all followed your advice a couple of weeks ago.
🤪
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How is everyone doing , hope still safe!
Stay inside and play this game 24/7!
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Brown🎵Note wrote:
More serious than I thought it a was? Yea probably. As serious as you all still think it is? Not a chance.℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
How about another update there, jerky. How’s that “psh, Bullshit” theory coming along?Corona update: 34 dead in the United States
Let’s not forget swing flu (h1n1) killed 12,000 and nothing was canceled and no one seemed to care.
12,000 dead, yet only .02% mortality with h1n1. Let’s infect the same number of people that had h1n1 with Covid19 and see if it’s more or less deadly.
We are now looking at official guesstimates of 250,000 dead in the US on the conservative end as of today. That’s after a few weeks of “over-reaction”.
Imagine what it would be like right now if we all followed your advice a couple of weeks ago.
🤪
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote: More serious than I thought it a was? Yea probably. As serious as you all still think it is? Not a chance.
Progress.
Where are ya, there, Sizzlechest? Maybe it’s a regional perspective we’re dealing with here.
I’m in DC.
Can you fault us, though? This is the most virulent (ha!) virus since 1918, and it’s possibly worse even than that. If this was 1918, I think we might lose about the same. 102 years ago... Nobody remembers that.
Imagine what it must have been like back then...
💥👅💥
Back then...
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Back then...
💥👅💥Emilio! Almost ready! Almost!
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote: More serious than I thought it a was? Yea probably. As serious as you all still think it is? Not a chance.
“The coronavirus pandemic is the worst global crisis since World War II”
~ UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
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