Projected US total deaths.
Forums › General Discussion › Projected US total deaths.-
℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
PEBSAW?Brown🎵Note wrote:
I don’t know how my car works either but I know when I buy a new one and it won’t start the next day there’s a problem.℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Mystery wrote:
Yea, I saw it. Which is ridiculous. They can tell me about every covid death within 30 seconds but can’t tell me how many people died in general last month?℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
From your source:
“Until data for a calendar year are finalized, typically in December of the following year, completeness of provisional data cannot be determined.”
Yes....
Or, just maybe... You just don’t know anything about how it all works.
One of those two things, probably.
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Visɧɓuɱe wrote: The devastating effect I am witness to here in Spain is testament to the virulence of the virus.It is a denial of truth to label it little more than the common flu.A denial to be disregarded vehemently as well as an insult to think so.
I think we have come together more as people with all this going on... Mostly.
But it’s so sad seeing more and more that we all live in our own little worlds, and it negatively impacts our ability to perceive global reality.
And then the tribal wars begin...
“My reality is truth! Yours is a lie!”
“The sky is blue!”
“No, it isn’t!”
“A hotdog is a sandwich!”
“Die, heretic!”
It’s our nature to take contrary positions to those outside our little tribal worlds, logical or not.
Globally, in this time, we just can’t afford to bow down to your little world. My libertarian attitudes must take a backseat in this crisis and society must come first. The balance has temporarily shifted.
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Brown- I don’t disagree in theory. I disagree in application. It makes zero sense to self isolate areas that have not even had a case yet or the areas that have 1-2 cases per 100k residents. It would make sense to implement safety measures and monitor the situation. Shutting down Modoc County (Zero active cases total) because The cities of LA, Alameda, Sacramento and Sand Diego have high rates is not humane, is not civil and will increase negative health outcomes of residents (abuse, poverty). When The big cities are fortunate to re open, that is when Modoc will be hit, so they can remain shut down while others start recovery.
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YOU wrote:
Brown- I don’t disagree in theory. I disagree in application. It makes zero sense to self isolate areas that have not even had a case yet or the areas that have 1-2 cases per 100k residents. It would make sense to implement safety measures and monitor the situation. Shutting down Modoc County (Zero active cases total) because The cities of LA, Alameda, Sacramento and Sand Diego have high rates is not humane, is not civil and will increase negative health outcomes of residents (abuse, poverty). When The big cities are fortunate to re open, that is when Modoc will be hit, so they can remain shut down while others start recovery.
Shelter in place orders were only started to delay and slow the virus from infecting you. These measures are in no way designed or effective in preventing you from ever becoming infected. We will not live our remaking days wrapped in plastic wrap, gloves and masks each time we interact with another human.
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A ,self admitted, poor analogy is to amputate both feet because the right foot has gangrene due to gangrene’s ability to spread.
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seems spains ratio is higher than the us. wonder why that is? is it the gov or social practices?
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Population density, reliance on mass transit, interpersonal interaction culture, hygiene culture, social appropriateness, underlying populace health and age predominance, supply chains, access to goods and services and on and on. There are lots of factors involved- it isn’t solely a matter of govt action/inaction.
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∞🪓Persephone🌲∞ wrote:
Tell that to the small community of Albany GA. If I recall, 1 infected person from out of town at a packed funeral led to 99 deaths the last time I checked. I’m guessing they aren’t fans of their governor opening up the state yet either.Brown- I don’t disagree in theory. I disagree in application. It makes zero sense to self isolate areas that have not even had a case yet or the areas that have 1-2 cases per 100k residents. It would make sense to implement safety measures and monitor the situation. Shutting down Modoc County (Zero active cases total) because The cities of LA, Alameda, Sacramento and Sand Diego have high rates is not humane, is not civil and will increase negative health outcomes of residents (abuse, poverty). When The big cities are fortunate to re open, that is when Modoc will be hit, so they can remain shut down while others start recovery.
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Meant 90 deaths, not 99.
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I’m off to find me a needle and some bleach....
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χɑɱɓɭɛɾ🌴CͣAͩPͩ wrote:
Meant 90 deaths, not 99.
For transparency- the funeral at the heart of this took place March 13th during the first initial wave. It was also prior to cities and states putting In protective orders. New York, LA, New Orleans, Atlanta what large per capita outbreaks and it was still business as usual. No gloves, no masks, no social distancing. So protective measures were not in place. This doesn’t change my opinion. These smaller rural areas are shut down most will not see corona local infections until well after large cities reopen. So their families will be in lockdown for 6 to10 months- that isn’t realistic and it isn’t humane. Yes, humane- many studies on poverty & ACES show the disparity of outcomes
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Here is some information on a 7 County region that is not experiencing corona cases with a total of 7 people hospitalized for Corona among all 7 counties. They were far more impacted by a statewide shut down down.
Feb 22 : weekly new unemployment claims filed = 387March 28 : weekly new unemployment claims filed = 15,423
Again 7 COVID hospitalizations, 7 Counties (not cities) with combined available COVID available Hospital beds at 2,800.
Did I miss something? Wasn’t it about ensuring hospitals were not overwhelmed? Has the goal changed? Eliminating infection was never A stated goal or purpose. The virus will not be eliminated. It was to slow the spread so it could be better managed. Better managed where? I am all for better managed.
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The population for the above region totals 712,600
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Who drank his disinfectant today?
Or how did the bleach injection felt like?
Americans, share your thoughts please. -
ғċṡṭ.ƿѧȗʟı♆яїн♆ wrote:
it was sarcasm? seriously wtf, I just downed 3pints of Clorox to cleanse my lungsWho drank his disinfectant today?
Or how did the bleach injection felt like?
Americans, share your thoughts please. -
First you pop a couple tide pods, with a chaser of bleach, then snort some comet cleaner and chase that with a good spray of lysol up the snout. You will be singing in the rain in no time.
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★DΞICIDΞ★ wrote:
First you pop a couple tide pods, with a chaser of bleach, then snort some comet cleaner and chase that with a good spray of lysol up the snout. You will be singing in the rain in no time.
I tend to get belligerent and violent when I do this. Maybe if I just do 1 tide pod this time & use borax instead of comet it would turn out better.
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Lies...
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Ese Santos wrote:
Ese I heard you put hydrochloric acid in your bong and take a few hits a day.....Lies...
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Totals So Far:
4/3: 7,404
4/4: 8,451
4/5: 9,616
4/6: 10,871
4/7: 12,868
4/8: 14,811
4/9: 16,691
4/10: 18,747
4/11: 20,577
4/12: 22,105
4/13: 23,640
4/14: 26,047* 👉 29,825
4/15: 32,443
4/16: 34,617***
4/17: 37,154
4/18: 39,014
4/19: 40,575 (updated)
4/20: 42,514
4/21: 45,318
4/22: 47,894
4/23: 50,234
4/24: 52,185 -
∞🪓Persephone🌲∞ wrote:
If 7 people are hospitalized for Covid, then they are experiencing some cases of Covid. You can’t actually, accurately, say a place doesn’t have any cases unless every person has been tested. You could say there are no “known cases.” Since people can be contagious up 2 weeks before showing symptoms though, that doesn’t necessarily mean much. 🤷🏼♀️ I’m happy I’m not in charge of making shelter in place decisions for anyone other than myself.Here is some information on a 7 County region that is not experiencing corona cases with a total of 7 people hospitalized for Corona among all 7 counties. They were far more impacted by a statewide shut down down.
Feb 22 : weekly new unemployment claims filed = 387March 28 : weekly new unemployment claims filed = 15,423
Again 7 COVID hospitalizations, 7 Counties (not cities) with combined available COVID available Hospital beds at 2,800.
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★DΞICIDΞ★ wrote:
Actually, there never is an exact flu deaths total for any year. It’s always an estimate (except for children).Is there a separate total for the non-covid19 flu deaths?
From the CDC:
“ While flu deaths in children are reported to CDC, flu deaths in adults are not nationally notifiable. In order to monitor influenza related deaths in all age groups, CDC tracks pneumonia and influenza (P&I)-attributed deaths through the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Mortality Reporting System. This system tracks the proportion of death certificates processed that list pneumonia or influenza as the underlying or contributing cause of death. This system provides an overall indication of whether flu-associated deaths are elevated, but does not provide an exact number of how many people died from flu.” -
Clearly you didn’t bother reading the link I posted from the CDC before, explaining their methods for classifying deaths from Covid and distinguishing them from flu.
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★DΞICIDΞ★ wrote:
Shhh loose lips sink ships 😂😂Ese Santos wrote:
Ese I heard you put hydrochloric acid in your bong and take a few hits a day.....Lies...
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The number of cases is going up daily.
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“As it does for the numbers of flu cases, doctor’s visits and hospitalizations, CDC also estimates deaths in the United States using mathematical modeling. CDC estimates that from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014, influenza-associated deaths in the United States ranged from a low of 12,000 (during 2011-2012) to a high of 56,000 (during 2012-2013). Death certificate data and weekly influenza virus surveillance information was used to estimate how many flu-related deaths occurred among people whose underlying cause of death on their death certificate included respiratory or circulatory causes.”
The following are only preliminary estimates because they still haven’t finalized the data:
Flu deaths 2017-2018: 61,000 (prelim estimate)
Flu deaths 2018-2019: 34,157 (prelim estimate) -
So, we’re approximately 8,800 deaths away before we reach the about same amount of deaths as one of the worst flu seasons in recent history (in the US). We’re 15,456 deaths away from the IHME’s prediction of 67,641 Covid deaths by August 4th. The IHME number is approximately 6,641 deaths higher than the 2017-2018 flu season. The 2019-2020 flu season is over. Preliminary estimated deaths for flu for 2019-2020 24,000 - 62,000.
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ฅຮอศརຮƴ♆яїн♆ wrote:
Aside from yesterday’s jump I’m not sure where you seeing That. Also we’re now at a point where we’re testing the asymptotic population and those numbers are being included. I am disappointed that the daily deaths aren’t going down faster but again it’s hard to believe their numbers based on how they’re counting deaths.The number of cases is going up daily.
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From Worldometer on April 23:
“ New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a 13.9% had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9% actual infection rate statewide (21.2% in New York City), which translates to an estimate of about 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State (10 times more than the about 270,000 cases that have been detected and reported officially). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78%.”
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Also from Worldometer on April 23:
“NOTE: Montgomery County (PA) has lowered the reported number of deaths substantially, affecting today's count as well as the previous days statewide figures.”
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