Projected US total deaths.
Forums › General Discussion › Projected US total deaths.-
℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
That’s because they don’t have them yet. See my post above.https://mises.org/wire/march-us-deaths-covid-19-totaled-less-2-percent-all-deaths
This shows 2018 and 2019. Both around 250k. I’m struggling to find 2020.
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
https://mises.org/wire/march-us-deaths-covid-19-totaled-less-2-percent-all-deaths
This shows 2018 and 2019. Both around 250k. I’m struggling to find 2020.
From your source:
“Last week (week 14, the week ending April 4) was the first week during which COVID-19 deaths exceeded flu and pneumonia deaths, coming in at 11 percent of all death for that week.”From my source posted 6 hours ago:
“Deaths lag infections. The thousands of people with Covid-19 who died this week in the United States were most likely infected as far back as a month ago.”There’s nothing to know to yet. Deaths lag infections, reporting lags 1-8 weeks after death, then finalizing lags way after that:
“Until data for a calendar year are finalized, typically in December of the following year, completeness of provisional data cannot be determined.”
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∞🪓Persephone🌲∞ wrote:
I have no idea about that but I did read an article about how much air pollution was down with everyone staying home - first in China, then elsewhere.I’m DONT buy this at all, but I’m sure some are
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/03/20190312-ehj.html
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Mystery wrote:
Yea, I saw it. Which is ridiculous. They can tell me about every covid death within 30 seconds but can’t tell me how many people died in general last month?℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
https://mises.org/wire/march-us-deaths-covid-19-totaled-less-2-percent-all-deaths
This shows 2018 and 2019. Both around 250k. I’m struggling to find 2020.
From your source:
“Until data for a calendar year are finalized, typically in December of the following year, completeness of provisional data cannot be determined.”
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Mystery wrote:
Yea, I saw it. Which is ridiculous. They can tell me about every covid death within 30 seconds but can’t tell me how many people died in general last month?℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
https://mises.org/wire/march-us-deaths-covid-19-totaled-less-2-percent-all-deaths
This shows 2018 and 2019. Both around 250k. I’m struggling to find 2020.
From your source:
“Until data for a calendar year are finalized, typically in December of the following year, completeness of provisional data cannot be determined.”
Yes. Because it’s all a lie. We are all pawns in some massive campaign by shadow world government to shut down the economy. Evil men, wringing their hands 🦹♂️...
Or, just maybe... You just don’t know anything about how it all works.
One of those two things, probably.
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Brown🎵Note wrote:
I don’t know how my car works either but I know when I buy a new one and it won’t start the next day there’s a problem.℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Mystery wrote:
Yea, I saw it. Which is ridiculous. They can tell me about every covid death within 30 seconds but can’t tell me how many people died in general last month?℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
From your source:
“Until data for a calendar year are finalized, typically in December of the following year, completeness of provisional data cannot be determined.”
Yes....
Or, just maybe... You just don’t know anything about how it all works.
One of those two things, probably.
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Also Brown you’re getting lazy. Just repeating my arguments back in a mocking tone isn’t arguing. But hey, if that’s a sign of surrender that’s fine, I’ll take it. Take your L and have a good day 🤷🏻♂️
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Wait... You don’t know how cars work?Brown🎵Note wrote:
I don’t know how my car works either but I know when I buy a new one and it won’t start the next day there’s a problem.Yes....
Or, just maybe... You just don’t know anything about how it all works.
One of those two things, probably.
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Brown🎵Note wrote:
No I’m not a damn mechanic. 😂℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Wait... You don’t know how cars work?Brown🎵Note wrote:
I don’t know how my car works either but I know when I buy a new one and it won’t start the next day there’s a problem.Yes....
Or, just maybe... You just don’t know anything about how it all works.
One of those two things, probably.
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https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/
More proof corona is widespread and even with these ridiculous death statistics the death rate is nothing compared to the flu.
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Brown🎵Note wrote:
A cardiac arrest is not the same as a heart attack (myocardial infarction). Everyone who dies ultimately has a cardiac arrest. But that does not at all mean that they die of a heart attack.℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
647,000 Americans die *with* heart disease each year. Corrected. Everyone dies of a heart attack.K1ngK0ng wrote:
Think of all the people we could save if we did daily press conferences and running totals on the news every night talking about ways to lower stress and eat right.647,000 Americans die from heart disease each year.
Bet this will go down this year because all the stress vanished a month ago
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BigAl! wrote:
Ok, ok. Just throwing the same argument back at them, that’s all.Brown🎵Note wrote:
A cardiac arrest is not the same as a heart attack (myocardial infarction). Everyone who dies ultimately has a cardiac arrest. But that does not at all mean that they die of a heart attack.℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
647,000 Americans die *with* heart disease each year. Corrected. Everyone dies of a heart attack.K1ngK0ng wrote:
Think of all the people we could save if we did daily press conferences and running totals on the news every night talking about ways to lower stress and eat right.647,000 Americans die from heart disease each year.
Bet this will go down this year because all the stress vanished a month ago
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
This reminds me when AOC freaked out about a garbage disposal.Brown🎵Note wrote:
No I’m not a damn mechanic. 😂℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Wait... You don’t know how cars work?Brown🎵Note wrote:
I don’t know how my car works either but I know when I buy a new one and it won’t start the next day there’s a problem.Yes....
Or, just maybe... You just don’t know anything about how it all works.
One of those two things, probably.
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Brown🎵Note wrote:
I don’t know what either of those things are℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
This reminds me when AOC freaked out about a garbage disposal.Brown🎵Note wrote:
No I’m not a damn mechanic. 😂℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Wait... You don’t know how cars work?Brown🎵Note wrote:
I don’t know how my car works either but I know when I buy a new one and it won’t start the next day there’s a problem.Yes....
Or, just maybe... You just don’t know anything about how it all works.
One of those two things, probably.
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Totals So Far:
4/3: 7,404
4/4: 8,451
4/5: 9,616
4/6: 10,871
4/7: 12,868
4/8: 14,811
4/9: 16,691
4/10: 18,747
4/11: 20,577
4/12: 22,105
4/13: 23,640
4/14: 26,047* 👉 29,825
4/15: 32,443
4/16: 34,617***
4/17: 37,154
4/18: 39,014
4/19: 40,553The numbers are finally below the thread projections - yay!
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
From your article:https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/
More proof corona is widespread and even with these ridiculous death statistics the death rate is nothing compared to the flu.
“Researchers said the test results, which had yet to be shared with state officials late Friday, couldn’t necessarily be extrapolated for the city’s roughly 40,000 residents.”
“Still,” he added, “it’s kind of sobering that 30 percent of a random group of 200 people that are showing no symptoms are, in fact, infected. It’s all the more reason for everyone to be practicing physical distancing.”
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“Deaths:
COVID-19: Approximately 161,262 deaths reported worldwide; 39,090 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 19, 2020.Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.
Doctors and scientists are working on estimating the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be higher than that of most strains of the flu.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu%3famp=true
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“From April 9 to 15, at least 13,613 people died from COVID-19, compared with 9,801 the week before.
For comparison, 12,451 people died on average per week from heart diseases and 11,521 people died per week from cancer in 2018. Fewer than 800 people died from car crashes in any week that year.
Even bad flu seasons, like the 2017-18 season, in which an estimated 61,000 Americans were killed — including 7,119 by the flu or pneumonia in a single week — didn't claim lives as quickly as COVID-19 did last week.
It's also still too early to calculate the overall death rate of COVID-19, but the US has seen a lower rate so far than many other countries, with about 4.4% of those diagnosed with the disease dying from it.”
[No doubt this number will drop as more are tested, but will it drop below 0.1%? No one knows.]An average coronavirus patient infects two to 2 1/2 others. That makes COVID-19 more contagious than the seasonal flu.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/chart-us-weekly-coronavirus-
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“Think about Italy and Germany,” said Carlos del Rio, an epidemiologist at Emory University. “They’re pretty close to each other . . . [but] one of the things that is clearly different is the median age of patients in Italy is 63 or 64 years; the median age of patients in Germany is 47. The mortality is much lower [in Germany] because they avoided having the older population affected.”
Singapore, renowned for its careful testing, contact tracing and isolation of patients, experienced only 10 deaths out of 4,427 cases through Thursday. That yields a strikingly low case fatality rate of 0.2 percent, about twice the rate of seasonal influenza.
Without widespread testing to find out how many people have been infected, it remains impossible to determine precisely the lethality of the virus in any given community or demographic group.
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Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch has written that he and most experts suspect the fatality rate is about 1 to 2 percent for symptomatic cases. A 1 percent fatality rate is 10 times the average fatality rate for seasonal flu.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/health/as-officials-plan-to-reopen-the-economy-a-key-unknown-remains-how-deadly-is-the-coronavirus/2020/04/17/0bd2f938-7e49-11ea-a3ee-13e1ae0a3571_story.html%3foutputType=amp
Here’s the earlier link that got cut off:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/chart-us-weekly-coronavirus-deaths-compared-heart-disease-cancer-flu-2020-4%3famp
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* Report your health daily even if you feel well
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Link to the app:
https://covid.joinzoe.com/us -
Totals So Far:
4/3: 7,404
4/4: 8,451
4/5: 9,616
4/6: 10,871
4/7: 12,868
4/8: 14,811
4/9: 16,691
4/10: 18,747
4/11: 20,577
4/12: 22,105
4/13: 23,640
4/14: 26,047* 👉 29,825
4/15: 32,443
4/16: 34,617***
4/17: 37,154
4/18: 39,014
4/19: 40,575 (updated)
4/20: 42,514
4/21: 45,318 -
Is there a separate total for the non-covid19 flu deaths?
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★DΞICIDΞ★ wrote:
Is there a separate total for the non-covid19 flu deaths?
... at the end of April, compare total deaths in April 2019 to April 2020 and adjust for population growth over the past 12 months. That should give you an accurate look at the impact.
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ฅຮอศརຮƴ♆яїн♆ wrote:
Hard to tell how accurate that would be due to early school closings (kids are flu vectors) and the isolation of people keeping spread of flu massively down as well. Ditto for car deaths. Guessing the only thing that will be up will be medical situations that are impacted by the virus overflowing the hospital system or keeping people from seeing their doctors for normal checkups or less severe health concerns that would normally catch life threatening issues. I didn’t even feel comfortable going to Quest for bloodwork. Saw several goofs on their part on safety measures...mostly lack of common sense.★DΞICIDΞ★ wrote:
Is there a separate total for the non-covid19 flu deaths?
... at the end of April, compare total deaths in April 2019 to April 2020 and adjust for population growth over the past 12 months. That should give you an accurate look at the impact.
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Btw, if you google: abacaba under videos I saw an interesting comparison of flu vs covid deaths since 1/1/2020. Abacaba also has some interesting videos comparing various other viruses over the years to covid. Good source of raw data if nothing else.
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χɑɱɓɭɛɾ🌴CͣAͩPͩ wrote:
Hard to tell how accurate that would be due to early school closings (kids are flu vectors) and the isolation of people keeping spread of flu massively down as well. Ditto for car deaths. Guessing the only thing that will be up will be medical situations that are impacted by the virus overflowing the hospital system or keeping people from seeing their doctors for normal checkups or less severe health concerns that would normally catch life threatening issues. I didn’t even feel comfortable going to Quest for bloodwork. Saw several goofs on their part on safety measures...mostly lack of common sense.... at the end of April, compare total deaths in April 2019 to April 2020 and adjust for population growth over the past 12 months. That should give you an accurate look at the impact.
... good points. I’d still like to see the basic numbers for Canada and the USA compared year over year.
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https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-than-flu-says-new-study/
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★DΞICIDΞ★ wrote:
https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-than-flu-says-new-study/
“ *UPDATE: One caveat is that a rough calculation applying the Santa Clara infection fatality rate to New York City's 11,000 COVID-19 deaths would imply that essentially all of city's residents have already been infected with the coronavirus. This seems implausible.”
It really really does seem implausible if you think about it.
Ponder this please: Do you really believe that the overrun hospitals in the various hotspots around the world are this way every influenza season, and just forgot about it?
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Brown🎵Note wrote:
The devastating effect I am witness to here in Spain is testament to the virulence of the virus.It is a denial of truth to label it little more than the common flu.A denial to be disregarded vehemently as well as an insult to think so.★DΞICIDΞ★ wrote:
https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-than-flu-says-new-study/
“ *UPDATE: One caveat is that a rough calculation applying the Santa Clara infection fatality rate to New York City's 11,000 COVID-19 deaths would imply that essentially all of city's residents have already been infected with the coronavirus. This seems implausible.”
It really really does seem implausible if you think about it.
Ponder this please: Do you really believe that the overrun hospitals in the various hotspots around the world are this way every influenza season, and just forgot about it?
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