Projected US total deaths.
Forums › General Discussion › Projected US total deaths.-
℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Seriously?? Apparently you’ve read nothing I’ve posted lately.ฅຮอศརຮƴ♆яїн♆ wrote:
Aside from yesterday’s jump I’m not sure where you seeing That. Also we’re now at a point where we’re testing the asymptotic population and those numbers are being included. I am disappointed that the daily deaths aren’t going down faster but again it’s hard to believe their numbers based on how they’re counting deaths.The number of cases is going up daily.
The last 3 days have had increases in the number of new cases per day in the US on Worldometer.
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Mystery wrote:
Yes, believe it or not I look at the actual data and not what a random person who I dont know posts In a gamer forum. Strange I know.℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Seriously?? Apparently you’ve read nothing I’ve posted lately.ฅຮอศརຮƴ♆яїн♆ wrote:
Aside from yesterday’s jump I’m not sure where you seeing That. Also we’reThe number of cases is going up daily.
The last 3 days have had increases in the number of new cases per day in the US on Worldometer.
The daily rates go up and down. Up a few days here down a few days here. But until yesterday’s spike it’s clearly trending down with April 4, being the previous high.
If you want to waste your time typing the numbers all out go ahead. I won’t. I assume people can go to the site and look at the bars Inching in a downward pattern themselves
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The 13.9% is likely one of those TBD statistics. First, they only tested people they found out and about at grocery and box stores (ie Home Depot or any other ‘essential’ stores). That means they didn’t test any older people staying at home or doing home deliveries (like 90% of the people on our block)...who are more likely to be 100% negative for antibodies. Also, I’m assuming that people that feel they were already sick and recovered from the virus would be more likely to be out. All this just means is that we still need a lot of testing to get the numbers right. Saw today that most of the antibody tests are returning false positives...which is really going to suck if people think they are safe from catching c19 but then later do. Guessing next weeks will answer these issues. Unfortunately I heard an idiot on tv yesterday tell us to shine a light where the sunshine doesn’t shine and then get one of his yes men to look into the light. Probably caused a run on disinfectant and needles. Strange times ahead.
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Still, .78% would be a horrible number given the higher R value of this virus...to get to herd immunity without help of a vaccine that means over 50 million deaths world wide, 2 million in the US. That is even if you get immunity once you recover. Wish they would figure that out soon.
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YOU wrote:
Sorry, I wasn’t very clear when I posted before. The “seriously?” part referred to the part of your quote I left above. The “apparently” part of my quote didn’t refer to the numbers of daily deaths I’ve been posting, but to all the other stuff I’ve been posting with links. Did you go to the CDC site and read about their methods for distinguishing Covid from flu? Did you read anything I posted a day ago?℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Seriously?? Apparently you’ve read nothing I’ve posted lately.ฅຮอศརຮƴ♆яїн♆ wrote:
I am disappointed that the daily deaths aren’t going down faster but again it’s hard to believe their numbers based on how they’re counting deaths.✂️
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Give me a number - how many people have to die before you decide Covid is actually a big deal? Currently we’re at 54,265 deaths in the US. (Side note: If you count the total for Covid and the most conservative estimate of deaths for the 2019-2020 flu season, that’s 78,265 deaths.)
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@Xam
This is from April 3rd:
“We already know that adults can get re-infected with cold-causing coronaviruses every three to five years. But why reinfection occurs varies among the viruses.
Though all coronaviruses mutate more slowly than the flu, one of them mutates just enough that after several years, it’s unrecognizable to our immune systems and escapes the immunity we’ve built up.“For the other one, that does not appear to be the case; it just appears that the immune response is not strong enough to give lifelong immunity,” Emerman said.
Whether SARS-CoV-2 falls into either camp is unknown. If it does, that would influence vaccine strategy. For a slowly escaping virus, it may be that a vaccine will need to be tweaked every so often. If our immunity to SARS-CoV-2 isn’t long-lasting, we may perhaps need booster shots, as we do with the combination vaccine for tetanus, whooping cough and diphtheria.”https://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/center-news/2020/04/covid-19-coronavirus-primer.html
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Mystery wrote:
The problem is I, and a lot of other people, don’t believe the number anymore. Part of the reason why I stopped arguing. We’re arguing over what I see as false data. Putting “probable stay at home deaths” into counts and counting people who were in hospice already as covid deaths is par for the course now.Give me a number - how many people have to die before you decide Covid is actually a big deal? Currently we’re at 54,265 deaths in the US. (Side note: If you count the total for Covid and the most conservative estimate of deaths for the 2019-2020 flu season, that’s 78,265 deaths.)
Of course people are dying, of course the disease is awful. Of course Epstein didn’t kill himself. Of course we don’t want people to die needlessly but we were supposed to shut shit down to lower the curve right? We did that. Now what?
And no, I’m sorry. I admittedly did not read every source you’ve posted.
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
I find it interesting that one death, Epstein, has held your attention for so long... Yet a bio weapon unleashed on us by the elites that cripples global society is “meh.”Of course people are dying, of course the disease is awful. Of course Epstein didn’t kill himself. Of course we don’t want people to die needlessly but we were supposed to shut shit down to lower the curve right? We did that. Now what?
And no, I’m sorry. I admittedly did not read every source you’ve posted.
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Brown🎵Note wrote:
A bioweapon with a under a 2%, possibly 1%, fatality rate on infected people just doesn’t do it for me. They gotta bump those numbers up. Those are rookie numbers.℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
I find it interesting that one death, Epstein, has held your attention for so long... Yet a bio weapon unleashed on us by the elites that cripples global society is “meh.”Of course people are dying, of course the disease is awful. Of course Epstein didn’t kill himself. Of course we don’t want people to die needlessly but we were supposed to shut shit down to lower the curve right? We did that. Now what?
And no, I’m sorry. I admittedly did not read every source you’ve posted.
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But... if you are looking for something that people will just disregard but still kill. It doesn’t warrant enough fear by killing too many at once but just enough to linger around and keep killing. That might be a good bio weapon.
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Political weapon using an actual pandemic. Create distrust, create diversion. Provide misleading information and Let political adversaries make critical mistakes. There will be news prior to Nov election regarding back door meetings and calls with world leaders. There will be hearings regarding how states provided federal money for inflated contracts to financial supporters. Wag the dog. Meanwhile tax increases due to states blowing up their budgets and being unable to fund services. Wall Street will continue to raid the 401k retirement accounts in order to keep the masses chained to the corporate production lines.
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Mystery wrote:
I don't think there is a specific number. despite all the combined death tolls from my earlier list of big numbers including flu, smoking, drinking, drugs, suicide etc.... i haven't known someone personally that's died in maybe 4-5 years. so even if it number double or triples(and that still doesn't come close to the other totals) ... unless someone close to me and my family, friends or co workers gets it , I don't think it will change how i feel about our reactions. not that i wish it upon anyone. i dont'. and I do feel sorry for anyone that goes through the loss. same as i do for any other loss even if it's a car accident or anything else.Give me a number - how many people have to die before you decide Covid is actually a big deal? Currently we’re at 54,265 deaths in the US. (Side note: If you count the total for Covid and the most conservative estimate of deaths for the 2019-2020 flu season, that’s 78,265 deaths.)
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people to look up other death tolls in your area whether its state or country and do comparisons. put things into perspective. and ask yourself how those affected you also. maybe some of them hit closer to home for some. that's understandable. people have to react based on their lives and whats going on.
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I just remembered I might seem callused because of my personal experiences. Before I was 12 or 13 I went to more funerals than my age. I lost quite a few family members and friends for a number of different reasons. i was very familiar with death. even had my own plot since I was 13(have since given it away). anyway. i dont' mean to come off as not caring. i do care and people should be safe. at the same time i don't believe in unjustified fear and panic. especially when it comes down to affecting not only me but the whole of the economy.
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★DΞICIDΞ★ wrote:
Fear and panic is not the same thing as a stay at home order that will save lives. Is anyone panicking here? I don’t see any of that. Maybe on the other side a bit...I just remembered I might seem callused because of my personal experiences. Before I was 12 or 13 I went to more funerals than my age. I lost quite a few family members and friends for a number of different reasons. i was very familiar with death. even had my own plot since I was 13(have since given it away). anyway. i dont' mean to come off as not caring. i do care and people should be safe. at the same time i don't believe in unjustified fear and panic. especially when it comes down to affecting not only me but the whole of the economy.
Stay at home.
Me: Okay, cool.
Them: DER TURK URRR JERBS!! -
a good question is how many of you have been close to someone that's died of the flu ever in your life time? ever? how recent? did they have other health problems? seriously speaking i would be surprised if it were more than just a handful and i'm being generous because of the geographic diversity of our players. like i said. personally.... i don't know of anyone. even my grandmother in her 70's or 80s had pneumonia(sp?) and she survived it. lived til she was 98.
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Brown🎵Note wrote:
when the stores shelves are empty when they normally or not .. yes. bit of panic★DΞICIDΞ★ wrote:
Fear and panic is not the same thing as a stay at home order that will save lives. Is anyone panicking here? I don’t see any of that. Maybe on the other side a bit...I just remembered I might seem callused because of my personal experiences. Before I was 12 or 13 I went to more funerals than my age. I lost quite a few family members and friends for a number of different reasons. i was very familiar with death. even had my own plot since I was 13(have since given it away). anyway. i dont' mean to come off as not caring. i do care and people should be safe. at the same time i don't believe in unjustified fear and panic. especially when it comes down to affecting not only me but the whole of the economy.
Stay at home.
Me: Okay, cool.
Them: DER TURK URRR JERBS!! -
i'm not saying you were doing that or pointing fingers at anyone in particular. just the general public. something pushed those buttons. that wasn't done by sheer coincidence. people panicked. my son couldn't even get baby food or formula for my grandson because the stores where wiped out. it wasn't just the toilet paper. ridiculous. people were not acting normal.
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i'm sure it's calmed down by now. i hope. but i haven't been out much to see because work has ordered everyone to work from home.
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Out and about today. Looks like things are getting back to normal. Stores seemed to be stocked well.
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Currently in California:
73,867 hospital beds; 4878 known or suspected COVID hospitalized patients (6.6% of total beds); 1499 known or suspected COVID ICU patients (30% of hospitalized).I am glad data is available but also frustrated that data is not being provided on -
A) known current & active cases in the State- they just have the running cumulative total
B) current hospital bed occupancy levels (available beds)
C) average hospitalization lengths.I’m not looking for this info to support personal beliefs. The data would be helpful to understand where we are at in capacity and severity of the situation
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Clarification- 30% of the current known or suspected COVID patient hospitalizations are in ICU it is not 30% of all patients are COVID and in the ICU
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Hearing more people talking about how it would be better just to forge ahead until we get herd immunity to cv. All I can guess is that they are just bad at math or haven’t run the numbers. Basically if we get to herd immunity before a vaccine is available or any meds that reduce the fatality rate, here are some quick in the head calculations...assuming: 1) a herd immunity of 50% (I know it is really up around 85% people infected but 50% is easier to do in my head), 2) fatality percentage for known cases is around 6-8% across the US, and 3) let’s say known tested cases are 1/10 the real number of cases so cv death rate is 0.6%. This yields: 331*.5=165. 165*.006=1 million US deaths. So 25 million deaths world wide. Gut feel is that would be low end numbers ...more so if everyone quits social distancing (don’t see that happening though). Time will tell. Saw the news today about normal death rates in March/early April were way over previous years even discounting known cv deaths. That suggests another bump up.
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χɑɱɓɭɛɾ🌴CͣAͩPͩ wrote:
Even the most extreme data puts the fatality rate at 3%. No idea where you’re getting 6-8%.2) fatality percentage for known cases is around 6-8% across the US, and
Also the new studies coming out on non symptomatic people are showing covid is far more widespread then previously thought. Most are putting the overall fatality rate at .37%-1.2%
Also as an added plus, with Covid, the normal flu that killed 80k last year only killed 20k this year! Awesome news. Covid just saved those 60k people. But it also killed 60k people. So.... it’s a wash.
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
My 6-8% is based on running average confirmed cases vs deaths across a number of states I looked at. I picked 6% because that has been the overall us average...60k deaths divided into 1 million cases currently. THEN I divided that by 10 to get 0.6%. As to flu? 2018-2019 season had 34k deaths, 2019-2020 had 24k-60k (cdc hasn’t finalized numbers for this season since flu season ends in early April.)χɑɱɓɭɛɾ🌴CͣAͩPͩ wrote:
Even the most extreme data puts the fatality rate at 3%. No idea where you’re getting 6-8%.2) fatality percentage...
Also the new studies coming out on non symptomatic people are showing covid is far more widespread then previously thought. Most are putting the overall fatality rate at .37%-1.2%
Also ...flu that killed 80k last year only killed 20k this year!...
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BTW, flu deaths, like driving or drinking or eating yourself to death involves a bit of choice. You choose whether to get vaccinated or not. 80% of children that died due to the flu last year turned out to not have been vaccinated. That is sad and a bit alarming because 1) the choice wasn’t likely made by them and 2) the ratio of children not vaccinated to vaccinated is pretty low in the first place. Unfortunately our government quit tracking vaccination info on adult flu deaths a while ago so it is unknown what the adult percentage is. I was thinking all the extra hand washing and social distancing and closing schools would reduce flu levels a lot this year but forgot the season pretty much trickled to an end about the same time all that started. Be interesting to see how it does this fall. I can say that I’ve never heard so many ambulance sirens in my life in Cape Coral Florida. Was in Winn Dixie this morning during seniors hour when someone died and they immediately cleared out the store. Sad times.
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50% of all Cali COVID hospitalized are in LA county- 4 counties have yet to record a case. LA has 10% of the state population and .03% of the state’s square miles.
Population density, infrastructure, congregate living facilities, mass transit appears to be a significant factor for verocity of community spread. -
℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
...
Also as an added plus, with Covid, the normal flu that killed 80k last year only killed 20k this year! Awesome news. Covid just saved those 60k people. But it also killed 60k people. So.... it’s a wash.
Flu is bound to go down with social distancing and stay-at-home orders in place... Even though we have no hard numbers on flu deaths this year. It’s your favorite thing: “The wild guess”.
More good news: Staying at home saved lives. 👏🏾😷👏🏾😷👏🏾😷
Take a look at the all-cause death rate year over year in the US on a chart. Layer the pretty much flat lines over one another. Then lay the all-cause death rate hockey stick for this year over it, and ask: “What the hell happened this spring?!? I mean, I thought it was just like the flu!”
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Hockey sticks:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html
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