Projected US total deaths.
Forums › General Discussion › Projected US total deaths.-
Different hockey sticks:
https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c
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Brown🎵Note wrote:
I tried to follow the other link but couldn’t get it to work. So... the death rate is higher this year in 7 out of 50 states? That’s what you’re trying to show me? Guess we’ll ignore the other 43. That data doesn’t fit the narrative. But umm I’m afraid because it’s gonna kill 2 million people bro. Because exponents and stuff. Bro.Hockey sticks:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Yeah, the death rate is “higher”.Brown🎵Note wrote:
I tried to follow the other link but couldn’t get it to work. So... the death rate is higher this year in 7 out of 50 states? That’s what you’re trying to show me? Guess we’ll ignore the other 43. That data doesn’t fit the narrative. But umm I’m afraid because it’s gonna kill 2 million people bro. Because exponents and stuff. Bro.Hockey sticks:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html
The other link was the financial times article with the same all-cause death rate methodology, but more of an international view. Google.
And yes, I’m aware it doesn’t fit your narrative. It’s because your narrative is just some kind of silly game for you. To see if you can swim upstream against science in a public debate. All we have to do is look shit up to knock you down.
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One problem I’ve seen lately while researching covid and flu related arguments is that many of the conspiracy theorists/false information pushers either don’t know how to google worth a damn or just like to misread what they find until it fits what they want to say. A good example is Candace Owens. She appears to have found a cdc article that said that “last year there were an estimated 80k flu deaths”...but failed to notice the article was dated 2018. That info got tweeted (along with a fair amount of other incorrect information she gathered) and massively retweeted until it ended up as something Viking ran across. 2017-2018 season was that bad year where the flu vaccine was less effective than normal due to a different strain than expected becoming dominant...and deaths were actually corrected to around 60k if I recall as the 80k was an early unreleased number apparently. Still a lot but still not close to last years much lower number.
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Having said that I’m guessing it might be worth taking everything the cdc publishes with a grain of salt going forwards. The last few months their reports are starting to look way too cautious and I hate to say it but wishy-washy. After watching a recent Maddow report titled “CDC, are you ok?” I tracked down a few of their recommendations and man do they sound embarrassingly weak now compared to just a few years back. I don’t recall if the current head is a trump appointee but in any case someone, somewhere in the cdc chain higher ups have lost their balls...and common sense to boot.
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χɑɱɓɭɛɾ🌴CͣAͩPͩ wrote:
I got my numbers from the cdc site so if anything was exaggerated it would have been their doing.estimated 80k flu deaths”...but failed to notice the article was dated 2018. That info got tweeted (along with a fair amount of other incorrect information she gathered) and massively retweeted until it ended up as something Viking ran across. 2017-2018 season was that bad year where the flu vaccine was less effective than normal due to a different strain than expected becoming dominant...and deaths were actually corrected to around 60k if I recall as the 80k was an early unreleased number apparently. Still a lot but still not close to last years much lower number.
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χɑɱɓɭɛɾ🌴CͣAͩPͩ wrote:
as long as all numbers are from the same source at least you have that as a base instead of comparing from different sources.Having said that I’m guessing it might be worth taking everything the cdc publishes with a grain of salt going forwards. The last few months their reports are starting to look way too cautious and I hate to say it but wishy-washy. After watching a recent Maddow report titled “CDC, are you ok?” I tracked down a few of their recommendations and man do they sound embarrassingly weak now compared to just a few years back. I don’t recall if the current head is a trump appointee but in any case someone, somewhere in the cdc chain higher ups have lost their balls...and common sense to boot.
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if there is a trusted source more reliable and accurate than the cdc i would like to know. and do they have the historical data or just covid19 data? I think i said before, i don't expect that cdc is 100% accurate and that its estimates. but i think they do that across the board so for comparison sake it's still valid.
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Oh, I think the cdc numbers are fine. I used them a fair amount in my calculations. It’s just that they are softening in their reports from mandate to suggestions. For example on restaurants opening back up they don’t require masks on the serving staff but call it a suggestion. So the restaurant association left that out of their requirements for opening back up. Lot of little things like that...one comment I heard from an official was that it was up to each individual municipality to decide. Yeah, that will work out well.
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χɑɱɓɭɛɾ🌴CͣAͩPͩ wrote:
I think that’s fine. I work in the executive branch, and our standing orders as far back as I can recall were to follow CDC guidelines for events like these. “Guidelines” are officially the weakest form of Government suggestion.Oh, I think the cdc numbers are fine. I used them a fair amount in my calculations. It’s just that they are softening in their reports from mandate to suggestions. For example on restaurants opening back up they don’t require masks on the serving staff but call it a suggestion. So the restaurant association left that out of their requirements for opening back up. Lot of little things like that...one comment I heard from an official was that it was up to each individual municipality to decide. Yeah, that will work out well.
How does the order go?
Law
Order
Directive
Mandate
Policy
Procedure
GuidelineSomething like that.
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χɑɱɓɭɛɾ🌴CͣAͩPͩ wrote:
It should be up to every county. Why should Hardee county with 20 cases total shut down because Miami dade has a problem. The privilege from people who don’t have to work is ridiculous. A lot of old rich people in Florida lecturing 20 somethings because they’re retired. Yet none of them go back to their state up north where things are locked down just like they like.Oh, I think the cdc numbers are fine. I used them a fair amount in my calculations. It’s just that they are softening in their reports from mandate to suggestions. For example on restaurants opening back up they don’t require masks on the serving staff but call it a suggestion. So the restaurant association left that out of their requirements for opening back up. Lot of little things like that...one comment I heard from an official was that it was up to each individual municipality to decide. Yeah, that will work out well.
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Hardee County could do whatever it likes, as long as you can keep your “Florida Man” from going to Miami to load up his crack pipe and infecting vulnerable populations in crowded places.It should be up to every county. Why should Hardee county with 20 cases total shut down because Miami dade has a problem. The privilege from people who don’t have to work is ridiculous. A lot of old rich people in Florida lecturing 20 somethings because they’re retired. Yet none of them go back to their state up north where things are locked down just like they like.
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Brown🎵Note wrote:
I’ll be honest that would be the hard part.℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Hardee County could do whatever it likes, as long as you can keep your “Florida Man” from going to Miami to load up his crack pipe and infecting vulnerable populations in crowded places.It should be up to every county. Why should Hardee county with 20 cases total shut down because Miami dade has a problem. The privilege from people who don’t have to work is ridiculous. A lot of old rich people in Florida lecturing 20 somethings because they’re retired. Yet none of them go back to their state up north where things are locked down just like they like.
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Brown🎵Note wrote:
I’ll be honest that would be the hard part.℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Hardee County could do whatever it likes, as long as you can keep your “Florida Man” from going to Miami to load up his crack pipe and infecting vulnerable populations in crowded places.It should be up to every county. Why should Hardee county with 20 cases total shut down because Miami dade has a problem. The privilege from people who don’t have to work is ridiculous. A lot of old rich people in Florida lecturing 20 somethings because they’re retired. Yet none of them go back to their state up north where things are locked down just like they like.
Florida man should be in jail, but was let out due to the ‘rona
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NY released their antibody study showing New York State has a 12.3% overall infection rate. At a 19,450,000 population that means 2,392,350 people have been infected in NY. To date 24,368 people have died in NY. For those mathematically challenged it puts the fatality rate at 1.01%.
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
NY released their antibody study showing New York State has a 12.3% overall infection rate. At a 19,450,000 population that means 2,392,350 people have been infected in NY. To date 24,368 people have died in NY. For those mathematically challenged it puts the fatality rate at 1.01%.
Thanks Viking. The death rate is important. Permanent chronic conditions also need close monitoring. The protective orders are meant to slow the spread and to protect people as much as supplies, processes and modifications can be done. It isn’t to eradicate or 100% prevent infection. When people have a false sense of safety or become lax with safety measures, spread will increase. Continue with life, but do so with intelligence and precautions.
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∞🪓Persephone🌲∞ wrote:
℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
NY released their antibody study showing New York State has a 12.3% overall infection rate. At a 19,450,000 population that means 2,392,350 people have been infected in NY. To date 24,368 people have died in NY. For those mathematically challenged it puts the fatality rate at 1.01%.
Thanks Viking. The death rate is important. Permanent chronic conditions also need close monitoring. The protective orders are meant to slow the spread and to protect people as much as supplies, processes and modifications can be done. It isn’t to eradicate or 100% prevent infection. When people have a false sense of safety or become lax with safety measures, spread will increase. Continue with life, but do so with intelligence and precautions.
Good luck with that.
https://twitter.com/joshuapotash/status/1256655337714782215?s=21
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And if you think I’m being smug as a Canadian ... this is Toronto today ...
https://twitter.com/natalie_kalata/status/1256622661251338240?s=21
Stupidity doesn’t respect borders.
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ฅຮอศརຮƴ♆яїн♆ wrote:
So people are out and about living their life? Maybe they’re not scared of the 1% fatality rate. Does this really shock you?And if you think I’m being smug as a Canadian ... this is Toronto today ...
https://twitter.com/natalie_kalata/status/1256622661251338240?s=21
Stupidity doesn’t respect borders.
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Viking my thinking from the start was as yours, however, it’s become apparent to me more recently that many are carrying or passing it on without any symptoms whatsoever.ฅຮอศརຮƴ♆яїн♆ wrote:
So people are out and about living their life? Maybe they’re not scared of the 1% fatality rate. Does this really shock you?And if you think I’m being smug as a Canadian ... this is Toronto today ...
https://twitter.com/natalie_kalata/status/1256622661251338240?s=21
Stupidity doesn’t respect borders.
Some more vulnerable peeps are not gonna have the same result after receiving this virus, they will suffer severely and maybe die because of it.
We are all responsible for the safety of others, hence the current lockdown or social distancing advice.
Surely we all have elderly or other peeps close by that are not as healthy as us. Is it not right to respect those -
Coolio wrote:
I get it. But we should come up with a way to protect the at risk groups without having everyone out of work and sending us into a Great Depression. It’s pretty clear that this virus is typically not dangerous to the younger and healthy population. Those people should go back to work while the at risk groups should take maximum precautions.℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Viking my thinking from the start was as yours, however, it’s become apparent to me more recently that many are carrying or passing it on without any symptoms whatsoever.ฅຮอศརຮƴ♆яїн♆ wrote:
Sborders.
Some more vulnerable peeps are not gonna have the
Surely we all have elderly or other peeps close by that are not as healthy as us. Is it not right to respect those -
℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Coolio wrote:
I get it. But we should come up with a way to protect the at risk groups without having everyone out of work and sending us into a Great Depression. It’s pretty clear that this virus is typically not dangerous to the younger ....Those people should go back to work while the at risk groups should take maximum precautions.℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Viking my thinking from the start was as ....ฅຮอศརຮƴ♆яїн♆ wrote:
Sborders.
Some more vulnerable peeps are not gonna have the
Surely we all have elderly or other peeps ...As a business owner, I want the economy to where it was at the beginning of the year, we were having our best ever 12 months. Can’t do that while this thing is ripping through society. Can’t do it with half measures.
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Just my opinion of course but now that we’ve set a precedent of shutting down the world over something with a 1.1% fatality rate you’ll never see that kind of economy again. The media will cause panic every year with a new kind of flu.
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Or worse, something 2x deadlier comes along and the world thinks it’s no big deal & not willing to do this again
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Are the inflated and often lied numbers included in this statement? I trust about as much that comes out of New York as much as I trust china’s. 3700 people as stated by both the ny medical as well as the New York post died and was listed into said numbers that NEVER got tested as having Covid. I’m sure that number is much much higher then 3700. It’s simple stay clear of any covid related media , keep yourself out of harms was and like your ma’am told you wash your hands. Such a simple conceptNY released their antibody study showing New York State has a 12.3% overall infection rate. At a 19,450,000 population that means 2,392,350 people have been infected in NY. To date 24,368 people have died in NY. For those mathematically challenged it puts the fatality rate at 1.01%.
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“The coronavirus pandemic has left the world facing an unprecedented hunger crisis. The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) has warned that by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation – double last year's figures.
"In a worst-case scenario, we could be looking at famine in about three dozen countries," warned WFP director David Beasley. He said the world could face multiple famines "of biblical proportions within a few short months."
Oil prices have collapsed, tourism is drying up, and overseas remittances – foreign workers transferring money to their families in other countries – on which many people depend for survival, are expected to decline sharply.
There's "a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself," Beasley said.“
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hunger-crisis-coronavirus-pandemic/ -
One of my main fears since the beginning P. It’s amazing how all those people who care about the poor suddenly disappear and want to lock down in their cozy homes as soon as there’s a crisis that might effect them.
I have little doubt more people will die from poverty because of our shutdown than ever would have died of corona.
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The virus is going to keep marching on because it is unaware and uncaring of the economic, emotional, and political arguments. Until we accept and act on the science of how to minimize it, we are all at a disadvantage of our own making. There is no reason why the US won't keep adding 20,000 - 30,000 cases -everyday- if people refuse to believe science. Canada had 1,600 cases yesterday, still too many.
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ฅຮอศརຮƴ♆яїн♆ wrote:
Exactly. Will keep marching on. No one ever said we were going to eradicate it. Shut everything down for 2 years while they work on a vaccine. We were supposed to lower the curve. We lowered it so much that hospital staff are getting laid off or making fucking dance videos they’re so bored. Think they’re can handle a few more patientsThe virus is going to keep marching on because it is unaware and uncaring of the economic, emotional, and political arguments. Until we accept and act on the science of how to minimize it, we are all at a disadvantage of our own making. There is no reason why the US won't keep adding 20,000 - 30,000 cases -everyday- if people refuse to believe science. Canada had 1,600 cases yesterday, still too many.
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
So... You want to just let the virus free now by resuming full contact life? Get everyone infected?NY released their antibody study showing New York State has a 12.3% overall infection rate. At a 19,450,000 population that means 2,392,350 people have been infected in NY. To date 24,368 people have died in NY. For those mathematically challenged it puts the fatality rate at 1.01%.
Let’s assume the whole world has the capacity to reduce the mortality rate to one percent. (Not even close. Hardee county might be able to save a few... Most countries can’t get it down to 5%, so Hardee is f*d)
For the mathematically challenged that 3.5 million Americans, and 700 million world wide. That’s only if we can keep the rate down to 1% with hospitals unable to take new patients. 1% mortality would mean 5% hospitalized. Too many to handle even remotely, even for the United States, where we have some economic power to fight it.
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