Projected US total deaths.
Forums › General Discussion › Projected US total deaths.-
★DΞICIDΞ★ wrote:
Nope, I used actual confirmed numbers. CDC reports that higher 34k number based on a model fed actual observed death counts where the person was known to have the flu. The model for flu deaths tries to account for flu deaths that don’t get reported as flu related...which they still haven’t done for covid...yet.χɑɱɓɭɛɾ🌴CͣAͩPͩ wrote:
cdc list flu deaths for 2018-2019 season as 34,200. not that 85k isn't bad. its terrible. but not 10x the number..... yet. Also sorry to hear about your niece and glad she's recovering. i've heard people say another way is coming that will be worse because we are getting lax and letting our guard down. idk but I hope everyone stays safe.Just passed 85k confirmed covid deaths today. That is 10x the confirmed flu deaths for the 2018-2019 season. Stay safe everyone. Just heard that my niece caught....
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https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/antibody-test-results-of-2-snohomish-county-residents-throw-into-question-timeline-of-coronaviruss-u-s-arrival/
Interesting article. 2 Washington residents found to have covid as far back as December. This means 3 months before we even thought about a shutdown people were walking around with it.
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For reference...first article I got info on actual death rates from was in scientific American...but this WP article has graphs...note that it is an old article from 5/2/2020 though so only 60k or so covid deaths ‘way back’ then.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/02/theres-more-accurate-way-compare-coronavirus-deaths-flu/%3foutputType=amp
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Yes...similar findings in California a few weeks ago if I recall. They hadn’t classified deaths as covid obviously but were starting to review cases based on symptoms. Guessing they must have kept people’s blood samples? It was bound to get here anyway since the US only did a few token shutdowns of travel early on with only partial impacting even China. And with minimal testing and no contact tracing we didn’t have a chance of containing it by the time any shutdowns went into effect. Only can slow it down to keep it from really getting out of control now...sidenote...wonder if colds and flu are reduced next year as we all become fans of Adrian Monk and his handwipes:)https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/antibody-test-results....
Interesting article. 2 Washington residents found to have covid as far back as December. This means 3 months before we even thought about a shutdown people were walking around with it.
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https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report
When Georgia opened against advice 3 weeks ago everyone lose their mind. The main headline was how everyone in Georgia would die and it would be Italy 2.0. 3 weeks later Georgia continues to show huge declines in the virus. They made the correct call.
They’re not getting a second wave because March was the second wave. But still people and California are calling for the world to be shut down until 2021.
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Bit early to tell. Talked to friends and neighbors up there in last week...they said places that were opened up were empty and they still didn’t trust anything the gov said. Which is really weird since all but one couple are lifelong republicans. Its a tight knit community in GA though with only 1 death so far so probably not representative of rest of GA. Hoping to head back up there next month as Florida is likely to get worse if tourists start heading down.
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χɑɱɓɭɛɾ🌴CͣAͩPͩ wrote:
But the cdc had the current count at 85k so its ok for that number but not the 34k number? Are you using 2 different sources comparing past and present?★DΞICIDΞ★ wrote:
Nope, I used actual confirmed numbers. CDC reports that higher 34k number based on a model fed actual observed death counts where the person was known to have the flu. The model for flu deaths tries to account for flu deaths that don’t get reported as flu related...which they still haven’t done for covid...yet.χɑɱɓɭɛɾ🌴CͣAͩPͩ wrote:
cdc list flu deaths for 2018-2019 season as 34,200.Just passed 85k confirmed covid deaths today. That is 10x the confirmed flu deaths for the 2018-2019 season. Stay safe everyone. Just heard that my niece caught....
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Or cdc old number is inaccurate but their current count is accurate?
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I think i said earlier... i dont believe the numbers 100% but i think they make the same mistakes past and present. I dont believe that 85k was 100% accurate either and subject to the same flaws theyve had before.
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CDC uses a model to estimate the flu death rates based on the actual reported flu deaths basically multiplied by a number. That is why their burden calculations show a guesstimate number for 34k and a range (something like 22k-40k ... I forget the actual range) for that year when only 7200 flu attributed deaths were actually reported. Oddly the government no longer requires states to report all flu deaths plus (except for children) and iirc they add pneumonia deaths into flu counts (might be wrong about the latter as I’ve seen that several places but doesn’t make sense). Covid they have been requiring all states to report all covid deaths so they only use actual confirmed cases and haven’t applied a factor to account for at home/nursing/etc deaths that haven’t been tested for covid. Guessing they will do that someday which will bring the numbers up a bit...guessing not by more than 10-20% though unless states stop reporting to make their opening decisions look better (ie Florida pulling a hurricane Andrew).
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χɑɱɓɭɛɾ🌴CͣAͩPͩ wrote:
It’s well reported and advertised that they’re including probable deaths and estimated at home deaths in their count. I feel like you’re putting your head in the sand and just making stuff up at this point. New York alone has counted 5k deaths this way. If you want a link I’ll provide one but you can google this pretty easily.CDC uses a model to estimate the flu death rates based on the actual reported flu deaths basically multiplied by a number. That is why their burden calculations show a guesstimate number for 34k and a range (something like 22k-40k ... I forget the actual range) for that year when only 7200 flu attributed deaths were actually reported. Oddly the government no longer requires states to report all flu deaths plus (except for children) and iirc they add pneumonia deaths into flu
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I don’t care about the number except that if we stay closed the US dies as a nation. If I die I’ll count it to preserve our way of life.
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On this topic I whole heartedly agree with Viking👹
Let’s look at facts real quick.
• Hospitals get more financial covid relief from the government the more they have COVID on their death certificates. To think for a second that there isn’t a single hospital fraudulently telling the public how many of their patients have died from Corona is just lazy and adolescent behavior.
• In this new bill for stimulus that the house just passed, the house gets 25 million dollars. That’s a 50K bonus to EACH house member.
• The news/main media has been caught & proven to have used footage from Italian hospitals being overrun and claimed that it was hospitals on US soil.
•(this is weeks ago) It is a FACT that CDC claimed death toll was over 60k in select areas, and then they further corrected it to 30k.
All of this and it is named the “Trump” virus.
In no way am I saying Corona is fake or unimportant. But to think that it isn’t being weaponized and used to push leftist ideas and agendas is beyond me.
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👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻
None of your complaint points listed solve anything. You have no action plan. If you want to get the economy moving, you have to isolate / crush the virus. What’s the plan? How about wearing a simple mask when shopping. So easy. Far from the entire answer, yet people fight doing something so easy that can actually make a difference. Wear a mask. You might make a 1% difference.
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ฅຮอศརຮƴ♆яїн♆ wrote:
I didn’t say I was every trying to solve anything. Not once.👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻
None of your complaint points listed solve anything. You have no action plan. If you want to get the economy moving, you have to isolate / crush the virus. What’s the plan? How about wearing a simple mask when shopping. So easy. Far from the entire answer, yet people fight doing something so easy that can actually make a difference. Wear a mask. You might make a 1% difference.
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𝐒𝐢𝐦𝐜𝐨𝐞♞ wrote:
All of this and it is named the “Trump” virus.
In no way am I saying Corona is fake or unimportant. But to think that it isn’t being weaponized and used to push leftist ideas and agendas is beyond me.
The facts that you presented do not support your opinion at all. And the facts are not accurate. Hospitals will not be rewarded based on the number of covid deaths. If anything (which is also not true) it would be based on the number of cases treated. But actually, hospitals make money on specific types of cases. Mostly elective surgeries, such as hip or knee replacements, etc. These procedures have been temporarily restricted, costing hospitals hundreds of millions per month. They will not survive without government help.
I dont think that is political in either direction. The fact that both the house, the Senate, and the white house seem in agreement on how the relief has been handled so far, I dont see how...
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...how this would be considered part of a left-wing agenda. Also, I haven't heard anyone blaming Trump for COVID-19. At most, I have heard the president blame China. It is not yet clear if this the truth, but it is certainly not what the political left is "selling."
I have heard both sides criticize how the president handled the crisis early on. I also heard both sides criticize Obama regarding the BP oil spill. Was that part of a right-wing agenda? Each side will always criticize the other. But that's not a bad thing. Is it?
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As longs as it facilitates improvement in process instead of hindering it then no. I am all for both sides arguing and pushing things forward.
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Damn, just a little over 5.1 million deaths off. So close guys.
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I am glad it didn’t come close. I am very thankful. I remember in February it was labeled as just a bit more dangerous than the flu. That was most definitely an understatement. Late March it appeared to be inescapable and lethal. Both were wrong. My heart and sympathy to those who have succumbed or have been permanently injured as a result.
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On May 4th NY Times front page said a US reopening forecast Trump was ignoring showed by 6/1 there would be 200k new daily cases & 3k deaths per day. The actual numbers on June 1: 16,191 new cases, two month low, & 469 deaths, also a two month low.
Wonder why they’re not reporting Corona anymore. Anyone figure it out? Where’d all my Doomers go?
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I don’t know why everyone is so concerned suddenly about riots and looting. The flu kills way more people each year.
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True, but rioting and looting are bad for business. It's especially bad for large insurance companies. And since the insurance companies run everything, it is bad for everything.
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Brown🎵Note wrote:
Bwa ha ha ha ha. Who’s concerned? Not me. It’s a nothing burger just like corona was. Or are we all still doomed? Trying to keep up.I don’t know why everyone is so concerned suddenly about riots and looting. The flu kills way more people each year.
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Corona was so last month.....
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★HΛИИIBΛL★ wrote:
😂 seriously they all completely disappeared. Just like the news coverage. They found some other fear porn that got more clicks so they moved on.Corona was so last month.....
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Seriously why is this thread still going?
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Maybe not?★HΛИИIBΛL★ wrote:
😂 seriously they all completely disappeared. Just like the news coverage. They found some other fear porn that got more clicks so they moved on.Corona was so last month.....
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BigAl! wrote:
Lol I love how no one ever responded to me on this. Covid disappeared overnight during the protests and everyone went quiet 😂.℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Maybe not?★HΛИИIBΛL★ wrote:
😂 seriously they all completely disappeared. Just like the news coverage. They found some other fear porn that got more clicks so they moved on.Corona was so last month.....
Seriously though the death rate is crazy low. Even lower now than it was at its height. Young people are giving it to each other and they’re picking up more and more through crazy amounts of testing. Nothing burger.
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℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
You are obsessed with nothing burger. Move on.BigAl! wrote:
Lol I love how no one ever responded to me on this. Covid disappeared overnight during the protests and everyone went quiet 😂.℣į₭ϊ₦Ǥ👹 wrote:
Maybe not?★HΛИИIBΛL★ wrote:
😂 seriously they all completely disappeared. Just like the news coverage. They found some other fear porn that got more clicks so they moved on.Corona was so last month.....
Seriously though the death rate is crazy low. Even lower now than it was at its height. Young people are giving it to each other and they’re picking up more and more through crazy amounts of testing. Nothing burger.
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