Randomness and probability

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🇮🇱Tinea🦶Pedis🇮🇱 Dec 22, 2014

A phenomenon (such as hitting loot) is RANDOM if the individual outcomes are uncertain, but there is nonetheless a regular distribution of outcomes in a large number of repetitions.

The PROBABILITY of any outcome of a random phenomenon can be defined as the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions.

Example: Dear nick, you're games a turd, I'm not getting any loot, what gives?
Response: loot is random, it's like a vegas slot machine, sometimes you hit, sometimes you don't.

What randomness vs probability states is this: you can adjust the probability: IE frequency at which loot is distributed and still have the results be random. So theoretically, frequency of loot distribution could be higher during the first 24-36 hrs of double loot week, then adjust frequency down towards the middle of the week and then adjust for higher yield towards the end of the week. This would still of course be RANDOM.
Coolio Dec 22, 2014

you just gave me headache fore I even got one thanks for that
★ʗℝ₳ℤㄚℝㅌⅆℕⅇʗҜ★ Dec 22, 2014

You had me at "a phenomenon" 😥
★CHUCKDΛVΞ★ Dec 22, 2014

★ʗℝ₳ℤㄚℝㅌⅆℕⅇʗҜ★ wrote:
You had me at "a phenomenon" 😥

Crazy seeing you here. 🍃🍃🍃 👀 🍃🍃🍃
『тӈԑ•ʟɛɢɪɵɳ』 Dec 22, 2014

Please translate into english
♞☣ғͫʀͣɪͩᴄᴋ☣♞ Dec 22, 2014

Yes, this actually makes perfect sense. There is no set probability per DAY, but there is a set probability for the whole WEEK. Therefore, it may be scattered and "random" the first half, but then it may seem like there is a higher probability later in the week. Or vice versa.
🌹Fatal Beauty🌹 Dec 22, 2014

What's the probability that I go ALL DAY WITH NO LOOT ON DOUBLE LOOT WEEK!?! Ummm...must be pretty high because, yup..it happened!! 😝😝😝
🇮🇱Tinea🦶Pedis🇮🇱 Dec 22, 2014

Ok, simple version:
Let's jack up the output rate to 67% (still random) the first 36 hrs. Then let's drop it to 40% out put rate for the next 4 days. Then 65% for a day or two and finally 85% the last 24 hrs.
That will give them enough to wet their lips in the beginning, keep them coming back for more when it's slow and drag them back In again as they are starting to lose faith with the big pay off at the end so they feel like all the money they spent was well worth it & they are looking forward to the next run.
🌹Fatal Beauty🌹 Dec 22, 2014

Innocent Saba wrote:
Ok, simple version:
Let's jack up the output rate to 67% (still random) the first 36 hrs. Then let's drop it to 40% out put rate for the next 4 days. Then 65% for a day or two and finally 85% the last 24 hrs.
That will give them enough to wet their lips in the beginning, keep them coming back for more when it's slow and drag them back In again as they are starting to lose faith with the big pay off at the end so they feel like all the money they spent was well worth it & they are looking forward to the next run.

That should make everyone's head explode! 😜😝😂💥💥💥
∞-№ɵƔӓᏲ-∞ Dec 22, 2014

Technically, if you think about it, there is no such thing as "random" when it comes to computers/machines. To create a "random" number, a computer has to have a set algorithm that chooses a variable between X and Y, which in this case is the ratio of Missions Completed/Loot Obtained. The computer technically knows every outcome possible and it has to decide on one of those outcomes to outsource to the user. Therefore, a "random" decision by a computer is really just the computer using an algorithm to pull a number out of a hat, per se, where in this case the computer knows all of the entries I'm the hat.

/endrant
TͣΛͩZͩ Dec 22, 2014

Only random bloke knows the answer to this 😉
🌹Fatal Beauty🌹 Dec 22, 2014

Oh hey!!! The computer randomly chose me this morning! I got 10 bren guns!!!!
💀💣CaptCalhoun💀💣 Dec 22, 2014

🌹Fatal Beauty🌹 wrote:
What's the probability that I go ALL DAY WITH NO LOOT ON DOUBLE LOOT WEEK!?! Ummm...must be pretty high because, yup..it happened!! 😝😝😝

Don't forget the amount you try, that too is a factor.
♕Снͣеͩсͩкмате♕ Dec 22, 2014

∞-№ɵƔӓᏲ-∞ wrote:
Technically, if you think about it, there is no such thing as "random" when it comes to computers/machines. To create a "random" number, a computer has to have a set algorithm that chooses a variable between X and Y, which in this case is the ratio of Missions Completed/Loot Obtained. The computer technically knows every outcome possible and it has to decide on one of those outcomes to outsource to the user. Therefore, a "random" decision by a computer is really just the computer using an algorithm to pull a number out of a hat, per se, where in this case the computer knows all of the entries I'm the hat.

/endrant

Any random decision is essentially someone pulling a number out of a hat. Plus, knowing what's in the hat is irrelevant, as it doesn't affect what you pick (as long as everything in the hat is equal size/shape/texture).
∞-№ɵƔӓᏲ-∞ Dec 22, 2014

♕Снͣеͩсͩкмате♕ wrote:
∞-№ɵƔӓᏲ-∞ wrote:
✂️✂️✂️

/endrant

Any random decision is essentially someone pulling a number out of a hat. Plus, knowing what's in the hat is irrelevant, as it doesn't affect what you pick (as long as everything in the hat is equal size/shape/texture).

That's true. I was simply using that analogy to represent that through the algorithms, the computer already knows all of the possible outcomes.
〓 MR71VWBUS 〓 Dec 22, 2014

Reading a book called "the holographic universe" by Michael talbot. Randomness isn't as random as you might think but the probability is that Nick already knows that....