Statistics/odds

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The Odd One Feb 28, 2013

What are the odds of flipping a coin 100 times and getting heads every time? My friend claims its a 50% chance as a coin does not have a memory he says. I do not think that is right but I do not know the equation to actually figure it out
AmNeZ Feb 28, 2013

It would be 50% if you flipped the coin once..... 100 times over it would be 0.5%..... Someone please correct me if I'm wrong
χɑɱɓɭɛɾ🌴CͣAͩPͩ Feb 28, 2013

AmNeZ wrote:
It would be 50% if you flipped the coin once..... 100 times over it would be 0.5%..... Someone please correct me if I'm wrong

Much much lower odds than that...actually once in 1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376 flips (2^100 flips).
Danny Rifle Feb 28, 2013

After each individual toss, the odds "reset", but that only means that the next toss does not get effected by the previous toss. The odds are low as far as prediction though. For two tosses to be heads, the odds are 1/2 times 1/2. For three times, the odds are 1/2 times 1/2 times 1/2. For a hundred times, it's 1/2 times itself 100 times
🎸Ꭲ✯ℌ༏ננβ༏ננƴ🎸 Feb 28, 2013

.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5./.5/.5 /.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5./.5/.5 /.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5./.5/.5 /.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5./.5/.5 /.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5./.5/.5 /.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5./.5/.5 /.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5./.5/.5 /.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5./.5/.5 /.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5./.5/.5 /.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5/.5./.5/.5

There you go, exactly 100 time. And I can guarantee you that does not equal 50%.
Doc Xray Feb 28, 2013

What they said 👆

The odds on each flip never change: 1 out of 2 (1/2). The probability of the same result 100 times in a row is (1/2)^100 = 7.9x10^-31.
😡 Feb 28, 2013

Some smart mobsters
The Ribellati Feb 28, 2013

XAMMEP wrote:
Some smart mobsters

I think some of them have circles around Harvard or Yale
🇯🇵Japan🔱Aɲɠɛƚ🇯🇵 Feb 28, 2013

There's theoretical and experimental possibilities
😡 Feb 28, 2013

The Ribellati wrote:
XAMMEP wrote:
Some smart mobsters

I think some of them have circles around Harvard or Yale

I wonder if you absorb some of the smarts when you cap those turfs
👻⋆℟ꇎῃઙϮƎя⋆👻 Feb 28, 2013

Falling coconuts kill 150 people worldwide each year, 15 times the number of fatalities attributable to sharks.
😡 Feb 28, 2013

http://images.neopets.com/items/spo_coconut_11.gif
ɆͣƉͩƉͩ∙∘💥🔫ᏚℍʘŦ Feb 28, 2013

The Ribellati wrote:
XAMMEP wrote:
Some smart mobsters

I think some of them have circles around Harvard or Yale

Ha ha ha that did make me laugh and yes there are a lot of wannabe gangsters around here (including me, although some will be a lot posher than me) 👴👵🎩🎓🎒💥🔫
🌾ᏦᎻᎪᏞ🌾 Feb 28, 2013

Doc Xray wrote:
What they said 👆

The odds on each flip never change: 1 out of 2 (1/2). The probability of the same result 100 times in a row is (1/2)^100 = 7.9x10^-31.

👆
Your buddy is confusing what he learned in statistics. Regardless of the odds of a single incident, when you set up artificial parameters like "100 times" you are in effect giving it a "memory" and comparing the likelihood of that happening a set number of times in a row, which drastically sinks the initial odds. Smack your buddy in the back of the head because his smart comment doesn't pass the dumbass test - if someone from West Virginia knows it doesn't sound right, it probably doesn't sound right. Happy gas day Hillbilly.
Tweek Feb 28, 2013

In simpler terms,

.0000000000000000000000000000079%

is the "percent chance" that you have to flip a coin 100 times, and it land on the same side every time.
Ghetto Monstazz Feb 28, 2013

your friend is dumb.
G*59 Mar 1, 2013

1+1=11 😂
Ꮶ͜иιɢн͡т Mar 1, 2013

The Ribellati wrote:
XAMMEP wrote:
Some smart mobsters

I think some of them have circles around Harvard or Yale

The greatest school known to man, is not a school but a web based utility. 👍
mojopilot Mar 1, 2013

Depends on who does the flipping, and what side is up before the coin is flipped.

There is a 51% chance the coin will land on the side it is on prior to being flipped, although it is possible to flip a coin so it lands a certain way every time.

Don't believe me, read and prepare to be bored to death!

http://news.stanford.edu/pr/2004/diaconis-69.html